Mixed Economic Signals: Housing Market Trends and Outlook for Q3 2025

Recent economic data paints a mixed picture, with strong Q2 2025 GDP growth of 3% exceeding expectations of 2.4%, offset by a weak July jobs report signaling labor market challenges.

Meanwhile, in the housing sector, existing home sales fell 2.7% month-over-month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.93 million in June 2025, with median prices reaching a record $435,300, per the National Association of REALTORS®. On the bright side, inventories rose 15.9% year-over-year to 1.53 million units, or 4.7 months of supply, up from 1.32 million in June 2024.

Despite a robust Q2 2025 GDP report, the combination of a weak jobs report and rising existing home inventories-signals mixed economic currents, setting the stage for close monitoring of consumer confidence and housing market trends in the coming month.

Over the next month, key factors will shape the housing market and broader economy. The Federal Reserve's September rate decision, now with an 82% chance of a 25bp cut, could ease mortgage rates if inflation cools - monitor August CPI and Fed Chair Powell's speeches. August Nonfarm Payrolls, JOLTS data, and Weekly Initial Jobless Claims will reveal if labor market softness continues, potentially impacting homebuying demand.

Housing data, including August home sales and building permits, alongside mortgage rate trends (10-year Treasury yield at 4.24%), will indicate whether affordability improves.

The next month will be pivotal for housing and the economy. A potential Fed rate cut and sustained consumer spending could provide relief, but a further weakening labor market or renewed tariff pressures may dampen prospects. For housing, affordability remains the core issue—lower rates and increased inventory are needed to revive activity. Stay tuned to these indicators to navigate the evolving landscape.

Takeaway: Rising home inventories and an 82% chance of a Fed rate cut in September signal improving affordability and potential relief for buyers, setting a hopeful tone for the housing market if economic momentum holds.

Source: Mortgage Market Guide

Historic Home Ownership - Challenges, Benefits, and Preservation Requirements

Historic houses have a certain charm about them that appeals to many aspiring homeowners. Their ornate details, high ceilings, and beautiful craftsmanship add to their allure, but often it's the stories these buildings tell that make the dream of owning an old house all the more enticing. Before you get swept up by a cozy Cream City brick farmhouse or an elegant Victorian-era design, make sure you do your homework to understand the unique challenges and preservation requirements that come with owning one of these stunning homes.

Challenges of Owning a Historic Home

While regulations vary across historic districts, some have stringent rules when it comes to renovating or making changes to old homes. This can make getting approval a lengthy process. Complicated renovations often require permits and oversight, especially if you plan to update the exterior. On top of this, it can be expensive to use authentic materials and keep up with necessary repairs. Always read the renovation guidelines before purchasing a historic property to make sure you're comfortable complying with them.

Benefits of Owning a Historic Home

If you find the right historic home, overcoming these challenges may be a small price to pay. There are also plenty of benefits that come with being the caretaker of one of these beautiful properties. For many, the opportunity to own a unique piece of architectural history is a worthwhile reward in itself, but there are some financial benefits as well.

Historic homes tend to increase in value at a higher rate than newer models, which means you could see a nice return on your investment if you plan to sell in the future. And if the cost of renovating and preserving an older home has you on the fence, look into grants and loans that may be able to offset some of your expenses. You can also apply for the Historic Tax Credit program through the National Trust for Historic Preservation.

Preservation Requirements and Considerations

Throughout the United States, the National Park Service monitors historic sites and homes that meet a certain set of criteria. These landmarks must be at least 50 years old and have the potential to reveal significant information connected to a historical event or prominent figure. They also need to exemplify particular architectural design elements from the same historic period. Once a home is listed on the National Register of Historic Places, there are certain regulations set in place to preserve its integrity, so reach out to your State Historic Preservation Office before starting any home renovations.

At the end of the day, owning an old home is about preserving a piece of history for future generations, and it's a responsibility that shouldn't be taken lightly. Keep these considerations in mind as you search for your dream home in a historic district you're proud to be a part of.

Sources: Bgpminc.com, Gregharrelson.com